Starmer has resigned; what changes will occur in UK immigration policy?

Prime Minister Starmer has finally resigned under immense pressure from within and outside his party.

So who will be the next Prime Minister?

Currently, one of the most popular candidates is likely Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.

For many Chinese, international students, and those preparing to immigrate to the UK, the most pressing question is probably not who becomes Prime Minister, but rather:

If Burnham comes to power, what changes will occur in UK immigration policy?

The following represents my personal analysis and predictions based on publicly available information.

First, international student visas will most likely remain open, and the possibility of further shortening of the PSW graduate visa is unlikely.

Looking at the University of Manchester's financial revenue and the number of international students in Manchester each year, it's easy to see that Burnham has always placed great importance on higher education and the contribution of international talent to the local economy.

In recent years, Manchester's development into one of the most successful cities in the UK and even the world has been largely due to its two top-tier football teams, and the contributions of international students and overseas talent.

Therefore, I believe that if Burnham becomes Prime Minister, international student visas will most likely remain open, and the possibility of further shortening of the PSW graduate visa is not very high.

Secondly, new investment or technology talent visas may emerge in the future.

Burnham has consistently emphasized technological innovation, regional economic development, and attracting highly skilled talent.

Just look at the changes in Manchester in recent years: skyscrapers are constantly being built, technology companies are continuously increasing, and the city's development speed far exceeds that of many other British cities.

Personally, I think that if Burnham comes to power, the UK may introduce more new visa categories targeting technology talent, entrepreneurs, and investors to enhance the UK's international competitiveness.

Thirdly, will the work visa-to-permanent residency requirement be changed to 10 years? Or even abolished altogether?

I think this possibility is very low.

The UK currently faces a labor shortage and international competition for talent, and those who come to the UK on work visas already meet high income and skill requirements.

Therefore, I believe that politicians who rely solely on hardline slogans like "abolish permanent residency" or "10-year work visa to permanent residency" to attract voters are unlikely to gain long-term support from mainstream British society. These politicians are mostly immigrants, and this is likely a strategy to prove their love for Britain and demonstrate that being an immigrant doesn't automatically mean they'll help other immigrants. Domestic politicians generally don't intend to abolish these policies. However, look at Sunak, who was so successful, yet didn't get re-election. These people trying to prove themselves with these slogans are unlikely to gain the support of their own countrymen.

Future policies may undergo some technical adjustments, but completely abolishing the permanent residency system or significantly extending the permanent residency period seems unrealistic.

Fourth, which immigrant groups might face stricter policies?

I believe the most likely groups to be affected remain illegal immigrants and the asylum application system.

Whether it's the Labour Party, the Conservative Party, or the Reform Party, they have all realized that British society is currently highly concerned about the issue of illegal immigration.

The Reform Party's rapid rise is largely due to its hardline stance on borders and immigration, which has garnered support from some voters.

Therefore, if Burnham becomes Prime Minister, I believe he will certainly be stricter than Starmer on illegal immigration and asylum policies. On the contrary, to win over more centrist voters, he might even further improve the efficiency of asylum application processing, expedite deportation procedures, and strengthen border control, making him even tougher than the Reform Party's policies.

In summary, if I had to summarize in one sentence: Burnham may be more friendly to international students, tech workers, and investors, but may take a tougher stance on illegal immigrants and those abusing the asylum system.

Of course, the above is just my personal analysis and prediction.

The true policy direction will depend on the outcome of the Labour leadership election and the official policies announced by the future government.

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